zondag, 14 september 2008
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Hoever vertrouwen we de overheid? (pensioen)

De overheid manipuleert het geld. Door “valsmunterij” verandert ze de waarde van de euro.

Waardoor ze tevens je financiële zekerheid en je pensioen verkleinen. Een Amerikaanse studie beschrijft dat sinds 1991 faillissementen van 75-jarigen of ouder verviervoudigd zijn.
Ron Paul pleit daarom sterk voor geld dat is gebaseerd op een “commodity” in plaats van op papier, bij voorbeeld goud of zilver.
Zie: In Government We Trust? Part 2

 
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Door , topic: Economie, Overheid
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  1. Michielsens schreef op : 1

    En juist een poging om die pensioenen toch nog te betalen (want politici willen uit electorale overwegingen de almaar grotere groep gepensioneerden koste wat het kost aan hun kant houden) zal op zich leiden tot meer gelddrukken en daarmee tot meer inflatie: kortom de perfecte vicieuze cirkel.

    Voor meer achtergrond zie: edelmetaal.wilbertgeers.nl

    Ivo Cerckel reageerde op deze reactie.

  2. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 2

    Gulf Monetary Authority, Lehman Brothers, Vrijgoud

    Will government bailouts spell end of dollar?
    Posted: September 12, 2008
    www.wnd.com
    UITREKSEL
    But what if a group of nations offered a currency that had no recurring liability attached to it but actual “money” in the form of the ultimate currency (gold) or the ultimate natural resource (oil)?
    In the past I would have viewed such a prospect as preposterous. Today it may well become a reality. Currently talks are under way with the Gulf Monetary Authority for just such a system.

    A Single Currency for the GCC
    September 13th, 2008 by Ivo Cerckel
    bphouse.com
    UITREKSEL
    If the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) marks its Gold reserves to market, whereas the US dollar, to which the GCC single currency would remain pegged (in a basket), marks them to the model of $42 or so an ounce, we would have a contradiction in the GCC single-currency system. Does that explain why the launch of the GCC single currency should be postponed until … ?

  3. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 3

    Falingen van banken en geldautomaten

    UAE Banks Confirm ATM Fraud, Call for Vigilance
    12 September 2008
    www.zawya.com

    UAE banks step up security after card theft
    by Lin Noueihedon Friday, 12 September 2008
    www.arabianbusiness.com

    zie mijn commentaar eronder.
    er iets verkeerds met het huidige financiële zogezegde “systeem”

    het Vrijgoud-alternatief dringt zich op …

    Dit is mijn commentaar bij Zawya (straks (vandaag nog?) krijg ik daar nog een blog):

    Something is wrong in the financial system
    by Ivo Cerckel;, blogger, Honest Money – Yesterday

    First, we had Bear Stearns, then Fannie and Freddie, then Lehman Brothers, now this …

    Bank failures and ATM failures are not good.

    It’s a clear sign that something is clearly wrong in the financial world.

    Get paid in full!

    Ron Paul is een verrader – Screw Him!

    Wie steunt er nu de republikeinen?

    Die mannen van Republiek Nederland, hier?

  4. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 4

    Sound Money, zegt Ron Paul.

    Hokus pokus, wat is dat sound money?

    The Bretton Woods systeem van 1944 verbond de dollar aan goud aan een vaste koers.
    En alle andere valuta aan de dollar.
    Het maakte een einde aan de goudenstandaard en aan de monetaire chaos die erop volgde tijdens de depressie van de jaren twintig en dertig.
    Bretton Woods was gebaseerd op de dollar.
    Zoals ik zei, alle andere valuta kregen een vaste koers ten opzichte van de dollar.
    Bretton Woods was het schoolvoorbeeld van stabiliteit en redelijkheid.
    Bretton Woods hield echter geen rekening met de menselijke inventiviteit.

    Op 15 augustus 1971 schafte Richard Nixon Bretton Woods af.

    Wat wil Ron Paul?

    Wil hij terug naar het Bretton Woods systeem?

    Of wil hij Vrijgoud zoals de Europese Centrale Bank?

    Vrijgoud zoals de deze week op te richten
    Gulf Monetary Council / Gulf Monetary Authority
    (naam staat nog niet vast) van de
    Gulf Co-operation Council Monetary Union?

    Voor een politieker zijn die vragen niet belangrijk.

    Boerenbedrog, dames en heren …

    Vrijgoud, geen boerenbegrog, voert een dam in tussen het muntpapier (eigenlijk dus de ijzeren munten en de papieren biljetten) en de goudreserven.
    Hierdoor kunnen de goudreserven niet aan prijs verliezen
    wanneer er papieren munten bijgedrukt worden.

    Probeer dat maar eens uit te leggen aan een politieker …
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  5. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 5

    (Libertarische) Samenzweringstheorieën

    Topic started on 13-9-2008 @ 04:05 PM by counterterrorist

    shotgun wedding of Amero to GCC to kill dollar:
    Saudi plot to kill oil rival (Iran)
    & kill U.S. economy (dollar).
    www.abovetopsecret.com

    Saudi false flag hides Gulf Cooperation Council’s NEW central bank’s GCC petrodollar to make war to destroy Iran’s proposed new “bourse” (oil stock exchange)

    [First, REMEMBER Saudi Arabia is a front for the City of London & Fed bankers (a MI-6/CIA front) (since British & U.S. spy agencies co-founded Saudi Arabia & co-own Saudi Arabian oil).]

    Amero is puur papier,
    geen link met goud,
    noch goud als vrijvlottende reserven

  6. Andre NI schreef op : 6
    Andre

    “Wat wil Ron Paul?

    Wil hij terug naar het Bretton Woods systeem?

    Of wil hij Vrijgoud zoals de Europese Centrale Bank?”

    Een antwoord is hier te vinden:

    www.lewrockwell.com

    “We do have some options to minimize the suffering. If we decided to, we could permit some alternatives to the current system of money and banking we have today.

    Already, we took a big step in this direction. Gold was illegal to own between 1933 and 1976. Today millions of Americans do own some gold.

    Gold contracts are legal, but a settlement of any dispute is always in Federal Reserve notes. This makes gold contracts of limited value.

    For gold to be an alternative to Federal Reserve notes, taxes on any transactions in gold must be removed, both sales and capital gains.

    Holding gold should be permitted in any pension fund, just as dollars are permitted in a checking account of these funds.

    Repeal of all legal tender laws is a must. Sound money never requires the force of legal tender laws. Only paper money requires such laws.”

    Kortom, de overheid moet zich niet bemoeien met het geldsysteem. Laat de markt dat maar uitzoeken.

    “Ron Paul is een verrader – Screw Him!”
    Argumenten graag, ik zie er nog niet één.

    “Wie steunt er nu de republikeinen?”
    Iemand die een platform zoekt om zijn standvastige principes te openbaren. Wat is daar moreel gezien mis mee ? Eén manier om individueën te bereiken, is via collectieve platformen. RP dwingt niemand om wat dan ook te doen, of heb je bewijzen voor het tegendeel ?

    “Die mannen van Republiek Nederland, hier?”
    Republiek Nederland ? Wat is dat ???
    Ivo Cerckel reageerde op deze reactie.

  7. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 7

    @Michielsens:
    Michielsens:
    [dit] zal op zich leiden tot meer gelddrukken en daarmee tot meer inflatie: kortom de perfecte vicieuze cirkel.

    Ivo:
    teneinde te verhinderen dat de cirkel zich tot de (goud-)reserven uitstrekt,
    voert Vrijgoud een dam in tussen het geld en de goudreserven.

    Hierdoor kunnen de (goud-)reserven niet aan waarde verliezen wanneer er geld bijgedrukt wordt.

  8. Andre NI schreef op : 8
    Andre

    @Ivo Cerckel:
    “Vrijgoud zoals de deze week op te richten
    Gulf Monetary Council / Gulf Monetary Authority
    (naam staat nog niet vast) van de
    Gulf Co-operation Council Monetary Union?

    Voor een politieker zijn die vragen niet belangrijk.”

    Erm- hoe verhoudt “vrijgoud” zich met “Monetary Authority” ? Gaat “vrijgoud” afgedwongen worden, Ivo ????

    Zitten die door jou (en mij) verguisde politiekers uitendelijk niet achter die wat-het-dan-ook-maar-mag-heten-Monetary-Union-Council-Authority ????
    Ivo Cerckel reageerde op deze reactie.
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  9. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 9

    Andre,

    RP wil
    For gold to be an alternative to Federal Reserve notes, taxes on any transactions in gold must be removed, both sales and capital gains.

    Die vent heeft nooit gehoord van de basisregel;
    bad money runs out good money

    Bovendien,
    goud is geen geld, noch hedge.
    Goud is weelde.

    Verrader? Overloper van de LP.

    Republikeinen? Hebben die geen platform? Hoe kan RP dan met zijn platform afkomen?

    Republiek Nederland? Ik heb hier onlangs posters tegengekomen die dat verdedigden en naar hun website verwezen. Website die niet verduidelijkte wat hun “platform” was.
    @Andre NI:

    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  10. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 10

    @Andre NI:

    Erm- hoe verhoudt “vrijgoud” zich met “Monetary Authority” ? Gaat “vrijgoud” afgedwongen worden, Ivo ????

    Of Vrijgoud zal afgedwongen worden, weet ik niet.
    Ik kan enkel proberen.
    En Emirates Business 24/7 publiceerde mij nog vanmorgen.

    GCC plans monetary council
    By Agencies on Sunday, September 14, 2008
    www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2008/9/Pages/09142008_a7c4bed491a94f5c92864a9dc940e8f8.aspx

    Ivo Cerckel said…
    FreeGold
    If the GCC marks its Gold reserves to market, whereas the US dollar, to which the GCC single currency would remain pegged (in a basket), marks them to the model of $42 or so an ounce, we would have a contradiction in the GCC single-currency system. Does that explain why the launch of the GCC single currency should be postponed until …?

    De rest staat hier
    A Single Currency for the GCC
    September 13th, 2008 by Ivo Cerckel
    bphouse.com

    Ivo Cerckel reageerde op deze reactie.
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  11. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 11

    @Ivo Cerckel:
    In oertijden, voor het bestaan van het internet, moest uw dienaar pamfletten gaan uitdelen om zijn stem te laten horen.
    (Bij een GATT (thans WTO)-vergadering op de Heizel in december 1990, kon de politie van Laken daar niet mee lachen. Uw dienaar en zijn medebetoger werden opgepakt.)

    Thans gaat dat allemaal veel gemakkelijker via het internet.

    Geen risico om opgepakt te worden.

    Ook geen noodzaak om bakken bier te kopen om de medebetoger van uw dienaar te betalen.
    (Medebetoger overleed trouwens in 1995 op 52-jarige leeftijd wegens leverproblemen.)

    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  12. Andre NI schreef op : 12
    Andre

    @Ivo Cerckel:
    Ivo,

    Wat is er mis met het schrappen van belastingen op alle transacties in goud ?

    RP zegt: “Repeal of all legal tender laws is a must. Sound money never requires the force of legal tender laws. Only paper money requires such laws.”” Volgens Murray Rothbard, jou wellicht bekend, veroorzaken die legal tender laws juist Gresham’s Law. Hoezo “Die vent heeft nooit gehoord van de basisregel; bad money runs out good money” ? Wat is je punt nu eigenlijk, Ivo ?

    Ben jij vóór of tégen het afdwingen van een “vrije goudstandaard” door een overheid ? (antwoord is een keuze uit twee mogelijkheden: “voor” of “tegen”). Mocht jij vóór zijn, besef je je dan, dat jij vóór de staat en tégen vrijheid bent ? Besef jij je, dat indien je tégen bent, je er in feite net zo over denkt als Ron Paul, like it or not ?

    Sinds wanneer mag men niet meer vrijwillig van groep A (de LP) naar groep B (Republikeinen) overstappen ?

    Ivo Cerckel reageerde op deze reactie.
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  13. Andre NI schreef op : 13
    Andre

    @Ivo Cerckel:
    Allemaal heel leuk en aardig, dat diverse centrale monetaire autoriteiten van alles en nog wat overleggen, echter zolang een geldstandaard afgedwongen wordt, goudgebaseerd of niet, blijft de staat in controle en kun je ellende verwachten.

  14. Andre NI schreef op : 14
    Andre

    @Ivo Cerckel:
    “Geen risico om opgepakt te worden.”
    Laat ons dat hopen. De signalen doen anders vermoeden (althans in Olland).

  15. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 15

    @Andre NI:

    De Republikeinen hebben een (onlibertarisch) programma
    Als je tot die partij toetreedt, aanvaard je dat programma.

    Wat is er mis met het schrappen van belastingen op alle transacties in goud ?
    Dat de rest belast blijft.
    Belasting is diefstal.

    Rothbard, “Man, Economy and State”, 2001 Mises Institute uitg, p. 783
    Gresham’s Law dient herschreven als
    money overvalued by the state will drive money undervalued by the state out of circulation

    Jij:
    Volgens Murray Rothbard, jou wellicht bekend, veroorzaken die legal tender laws juist Gresham’s Law.

    Ik:
    Goud is thans ondergewaardeerd. De overheid heeft schrik dat de stijging ervan aantoont dat zij (de overheid) in alles faalt.

    Rothbard vervolgt:
    Whenever the state sets an arbitrary value or price on one money in terms of another, it thereby establishes an effective minimum price control on one money and a maximum price on the other, the prices being in terms of each other This, for example, was the essence of bimetallism.

    Ivo:
    Was dat ook niet de essentie van het Bretton Woods systeem?

    Jij:
    Ben jij vóór of tégen het afdwingen van een “vrije goudstandaard” door een overheid ? (antwoord is een keuze uit twee mogelijkheden: “voor” of “tegen”). Mocht jij vóór zijn, besef je je dan, dat jij vóór de staat en tégen vrijheid bent ? Besef jij je, dat indien je tégen bent, je er in feite net zo over denkt als Ron Paul, like it or not ?

    Van Rothbard terug naar (een leerling van) Mises
    George Reisman, “Capitalism – A Treatise on Economics”, Ottawa, Illinois, Jameson books, 1990, p. 951:
    The solution for every aspect of inflation lies in gold (and silver). The widespread ownership of gold and silver coins by American citizens, and the concomitant willingness of large numbers of Americans to accept (Ivo: ontvangen ja, maar geven???) them in payment for their goods and services would be a guarantee against the destruction of money through hyperinflation. It would mean that a new money would be ready to take the place of the present paper money, should the latter ever be inflated into extinction.
    However remote the possibility of hyperinflation and the destruction of money in the United States may appear, it should be kept in mind that the time required for such a possibility to loom as large as it did in 1979 and 1980 is no greater than the time that was required to make it recede.

    Ivo:
    thans staan ze dus voor hyperinflatie in de VS van A.
    Wat nu met de door Rothbard herschreven wet van Gresham
    money overvalued by the state will drive money undervalued by the state out of circulation?

    Uitgangspunt: legal tender laws dienen afgeschaft.

    Ondertussen staan ze daar in de VS van A met hun kapotte dollar.

    Is de dollar dan nog overgewaardeerd tov goud?

    Jij
    Ben jij vóór of tégen het afdwingen van een “vrije goudstandaard” door een overheid ? (antwoord is een keuze uit twee mogelijkheden: “voor” of “tegen”). Mocht jij vóór zijn, besef je je dan, dat jij vóór de staat en tégen vrijheid bent ? Besef jij je, dat indien je tégen bent, je er in feite net zo over denkt als Ron Paul, like it or not ?

    Voor ik antwoord,
    waar kan ik het programma vinden van die knul?

    Deze verklaring
    Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
    by Ron Paul
    Statement at Hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, February 15, 2007
    www.lewrockwell.com
    bevat GEEN verwijzing naar goud.

    Wat meer is, de knul stelt
    How can a policy of steadily debasing our currency be defended morally, knowing what harm it causes to those who still believe in saving money and assuming responsibility for themselves in their retirement years? Is it any wonder we are a nation of debtors rather than savers?

    Je spaart niet geld. Je spaart weelde.

    Goud is geen geld, noch hedge.
    Goud is weelde

    Erasmus, De Lof der Zotheid, vertaald door Frans van Hoogstra(e)ten, URL vind je wel
    Is ’er wel zulk een gek onder u lieden, dat hy ’t goud en de kostelijke gesteenten by den weg zal laeten leggen? Ik meen zeeker wel neen. Hy zal het wel te degen opsluiten, ja in een kas verbergen, daer een goed slot aen hangt, en dat noch in de heimelijkste laedjes; het slijk laet hy op den weg leggen. Dewijl men dan de kostelijke dingen opsluit, en de dingen van geener waerde ten beste gegeven worden, zoo is het immers klaer te zien, dat de wijsheid, die onzen Schrijver niet wil verborgen hebben, slechter is dan de Zotheid, die hy gebied te verbergen. Hoort nu zijn eige woorden eens: De mensch, die zijne zotheid verbergt, is beter dan de gene, die zijne wijsheid verborgen houd.

    Aanvaard jij wat Erasmus zegt?
    Als RP-fan, zeg je neen natuurlijk.
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  16. yelamdenu schreef op : 16

    Goud is thans ondergewaardeerd. De overheid heeft schrik dat de stijging ervan aantoont dat zij (de overheid) in alles faalt.

    De overheid faalt alleen als je van de valse vooronderstelling uitgaat dat ze een of ander algemeen belang dient, in plaats van de plutocraten die ze in feite dient. Dat laatste doet de overheid nl. erg effectief.

    Het feitelijke probleem is de legalisering van fractional reserve banking. De rest van de problemen is daarvan een uitvloeisel.
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.
    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  17. Andre NI schreef op : 17
    Andre

    @Ivo Cerckel:

    “Voor ik antwoord,
    waar kan ik het programma vinden van die knul?”

    Ge blaft tegen de verkeerde boom, menneke 😉

    Programma voor wat ?
    Beter is zijn artikelen lezen op bijvoorbeeld lewrockwell.com, zie www.lewrockwell.com

    Alvorens je dat doet: wat is je antwoord op de deelvraag of jij voor of tegen een door de staat ingevoerde goudstandaard bent ? Ik ben tegen om het simpele feit dat het een moral hazard is; e tu ?

    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  18. Andre NI schreef op : 20
    Andre

    @yelamdenu:
    “Goud is ondergewaardeerd”

    Als dat zo is, schiet de prijs morgen omhoog.

    De markt waardeert niet onder, en niet over. De markt waardeert. Goud concurreert met andere hebbedingetjes. De huidige marktwaarde is correct.

    Sinds 19 maart 2008 is goud aan het dalen, net als andere commodities. Tijdens recessies is er geen “geld” voor goud. Onder dergelijke condities doet goud het slecht, historisch gezien dan. Wat niet wegneemt, dat het anders kan verkeren in de toekomst.

  19. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 21

    @Andre NI:
    Sorry, ik kan niet meer volgen.

    Bovendien heeft RP geen programma. Ik heb een verklaring van hem geciteerd en jij zegt dat ik tegen een verkeerde boom blaf. Geef me dan de verwijzingen naar de verklaringen waarop jij je beroept. Sorry, ik interesseer mij niet voor politiek en ik weet niet waar ik dat moet vinden.

    Geef jij je goud zomaar weg? Ik niet, wat de overheid ook moge beslissen. Ik blijf bij wat Erasmus die ik citeerde stelt.

    Aan valstrikken, doe ik niet mee, nee.

    Het feitelijke probleem is de legalisering van fractional reserve banking, stelde je sinds mijn laatste reactie.
    VERSUS
    Repeal of all legal tender laws is a must, citeerde je hoger.

    Wat is nu het probleem?

    Het probleem is dat jij Erasmus niet aanvaardt.
    yelamdenu reageerde op deze reactie.
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    Andre NI reageerde op deze reactie.

  20. yelamdenu schreef op : 22

    Ik ben bang dat er wat misverstanden zijn over wie er wat zei. 🙂
    Ik gebruikte blockquote tags, dat is wellicht de oorzaak.

  21. yelamdenu schreef op : 23

    @Ivo Cerckel:

    Het feitelijke probleem is de legalisering van fractional reserve banking

    C’est moi qui l’ai dit 🙂

  22. Andre NI schreef op : 24
    Andre

    @Ivo Cerckel:

    “Het feitelijke probleem is de legalisering van fractional reserve banking, stelde je sinds mijn laatste reactie.”
    Neen, Ivo. Dat heb ik niet gesteld, dat was
    @yelamdenu:

    Ik ga een stap verder. Ik stel, dat ELKE legalisering van welk geldsysteem dan ook, dus ook van GOUD, een morele hazard inhoudt.

    Ondertussen ontwijk je mijn vragen, zoals bijvoorbeeld hier @Andre NI en hier @Andre NI.

    Je vraagt mij om informatie over Ron Paul. Ik geef je dat (een aantal keer zelfs), inclusief een uitgebreid citaat en dan kom je met de dooddoener dat je het met de paplepel ingegoten wilt krijgen. Dat gaat niet goedkomen.

    Feit is, dat je maar wat raaskalt over Ron Paul. Je hebt er geen kennis over, en je wílt het ook niet krijgen, en tóch heb je een uitgesproken mening over hem. Geen probleem; jammer, maar helaas.

    Mijn indruk van jou is dat je een onverbetelijke gold-bug bent, die zelfs zo ver wil gaan een centrale monetaire autoriteit “vrij goud” (o ironie) te willen gaan verplichten. Dat heeft dus niks met vrijheid te maken. Ik hoop dan ook, dat mijn aanname foutief is.

    yelamdenu reageerde op deze reactie.

  23. yelamdenu schreef op : 26

    @Andre NI:

    Ik ga een stap verder. Ik stel, dat ELKE legalisering van welk geldsysteem dan ook, dus ook van GOUD, een morele hazard inhoudt.

    Daar valt veel voor te zeggen.
    Goud als redder der mensheid is een utopische illusie.

    “We will answer their demand for a gold standard by saying to them: You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns, you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”

    William Jennings Bryan

    users.cyberone.com

  24. Gamma schreef op : 27

    Yes you can eat gold. It is a permissible food colouring with its own e-number which is E175. Gold was first used in cooking in the Middle Ages. While peasants went hungry the rich decorated their lavish banquets with a patina of gold. Roast birds and other meat dishes were wrapped in thin gold leaf in an ostentatious display of wealth. The most frequent use of gold in edible form today in its use by chocolatiers. Top quality chocolate makers often produce chocolates flecked with gold leaf. There is also a liqueur called Danziger Goldwasser which is flecked by minute particles of gold leaf suspended in the liquid. The liqueur is used the flavour the aptly named souffle Rothschild. Edible gold leaf is easily purchased from a range of suppliers who also supply gold powder and gold paints which contain the real thing. Premium food producers have even successfully markets marmalade with gold particles. The body does not absorb gold easily so what you eat will quickly leave the system. However, in larger quantities gold does become toxic and harmful to human health.

    www.blurtit.com

  25. Gamma schreef op : 28

    www.lewrockwell.com

    You Can’t Eat Gold!

    by Gary North
    by Gary North

    Save a link to this article and return to it at www.savethis.comSave a link to this article and return to it at www.savethis.com Email a link to this articleEmail a link to this article Printer-friendly version of this articlePrinter-friendly version of this article View a list of the most popular articles on our siteView a list of the most popular articles on our site

    Slogans come and go. Popular political slogans reflect the prevailing political lies of a generation, which get replaced by the political lies of the next generation.

    When my parents were in college, President Roosevelt made famous this phrase, regarding the national debt, meaning the debt of the U.S. government to investors in U.S. government debt: “We owe it to ourselves.” These days, the fundamental reality of that slogan is becoming apparent: some people owe it to other people. Those who owe have different goals from those who are owed. But in 1935, the slogan was widely believed. It is amazing what the public will believe, despite counter-evidence.

    Nobody in 1935 would have imagined that the 6,000 banks that had gone bust, 1930–33, had owed it to each other. They had owed it to their depositors, who lost their money when their local banks went bust. There was no government-subsidized FDIC insurance in those days. As borrowers, most of these same people had owed money to the now defunct banks, whose assets (the debtors’ obligations) had been bought up cheap by surviving banks, who then pressed the debtors for payment. So, the farmer who was being evicted from his land because he could not pay the mortgage now owed this money to a different bank from the one that had owed him money in his savings account, which was gone with the wind, along with the original bank. In private banking, another slogan ruled: “Heads, you lose. Tails, you lose.”

    Those voters who had experienced this two-way squeeze on their net worth knew better than to believe “we owe it to ourselves” with respect to commercial banking. Yet they bought the same slogan when it was applied to the biggest debtor of all, the U.S. government.

    I can still remember someone in 1959 telling me, “we owe it to ourselves.” But that slogan was fading in popularity by then. I have not heard it in years.

    INEDIBLE GOLD

    Forty years ago, when I was just getting started, this slogan was widespread, though not part of the national consciousness: “You can’t eat gold.” That was back in the dear, dead days of the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, when 35 dollars could be exchanged for an ounce of gold, if the dollars were held by a foreign government or a foreign central bank. Roosevelt had stolen the gold from the public in 1933 for $20 an ounce and then turned it over to the Federal Reserve System. Then he raised the price in 1934 to $35, which enabled the FED to expand its reserves, thereby expanding the money supply. The great winners in 1934 were investors who had bought gold mining shares in 1933. The great losers were the voters, who lost their ability to pressure the banks to stop issuing fiat money.

    The flow of gold out of the FED began in 1957 and continued until Nixon unilaterally revoked the Bretton Woods agreement on August 15, 1971. He closed the gold window, as the media put it at the time. In between 1957 and 1971, those few people who believed that the country should return to a “gold standard for citizens” rather than a “gold standard for central bankers” were challenged by this slogan: “You can’t eat gold.” The sloganeer then sat back, proud of his insight. My response was always the same: “You can’t eat Federal Reserve Notes, either.” The sloganeer always became confused. I would sometimes add, “By the way, in some primitive societies, women are the means of exchange.” This observation usually ended the chat.

    I have not heard “You can’t eat gold” in 25 years. All it took was the rise in the price of gold from $35 to over $800, 1971 to January, 1980, to put the slogan out of circulation. Gold’s post-1980 retreat in price did not revive the old slogan. Gold has not approached $35 an ounce since 1971. When gold bugs quadrupled their money by ignoring “You can’t eat gold,” the sloganeers retreated. They got tired of hearing about the capital gains made by unbelievers who had never believed in the slogan. There is nothing like tripling your money at the expense of a slogan’s believers to reduce the popularity of the slogan.

    Of course gold is inedible. In most societies, money is inedible. This is a sign of social progress, I say. It is a primitive society indeed where people eat the currency unit. This is especially true in societies where women are money.

    Money is the most marketable commodity. A marketable commodity has five characteristics:

    1.
    Portability
    2.
    Recognizability
    3.
    Durability
    4.
    Divisibility
    5.
    High value in relation to weight/volume

    Note: point four is a real hindrance to societies in which women are money.

    Gold has long served as money because it has all five characteristics. But gold substitutes have become popular: bank notes, letters of credit, credit cards, and Federal Reserve Notes. Gold is heavy. It is risky to transport. It is quite valuable, so making change is a problem. But the fact that it is inedible was never a downside of the gold standard.

    WHY SLOGANS FADE IN POPULARITY

    There is one major reason: the conditions that favored their popularity fade. There are two ways that changing conditions kill a slogan: (1) by removing any need to challenge the slogan; (2) by destroying the believability of the slogan. In other words, a slogan fades when the sloganeers completely win or completely lose.

    In the case of “We owe it to ourselves,” the fading came because nobody with any influence challenged the growth of federal debt after 1941. The supply-side economists in the 1980s announced that “deficits don’t matter.” The Keynesians had always believed that deficits do matter most of the time: positively. “The larger the better in recessions, and don’t worry about them during the boom.” The monetarists believed, “deficits don’t matter at the margin.” But the economy is always operating at the margin. This calms the monetarists. Only the Austrian school kept yelling that deficits do matter. Nobody listened.

    “You can’t eat gold” faded for two reasons: (1) nobody except the Austrians defended the gold standard after Nixon ended it; (2) the legalization of gold ownership for Americans came in 1974, after which gold was just another commodity, as far as most financially alert people were concerned. “You can’t eat gold” was no more relevant in a debate over monetary policy than “You can’t eat copper.”

    So the two slogans faded because of the complete victory by the defenders of permanent government debt, who were very often critics of the traditional gold standard. The two positions were related: rising government debt and the absence of the traditional gold standard.

    That the two are related operationally had been one of the core arguments in favor of the traditional, government-guaranteed gold standard. The gold standard economists had argued that the primary restraint on the creation of money by the central bank had been the threat of a run on gold by the public. Remove this threat by breaking the legal link between money in circulation and gold in government or bank vaults, said gold standard economists, and both the money supply and government debt will soar. That prediction has been borne out by events after 1933 and 1971.

    Here is the government’s procedure. The government sells debt to the public. It also sells to the central bank, which buys this debt with newly created money. This newly created money drives up the price of goods and services. Rising prices create rising demand by voters for the government to do something to help them. The government then passes a cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) law governing welfare, including Social Security. It raises Medicare payments. More money flows out. More tax revenue is therefore needed. There is always tax resistance. But new money puts people into higher tax brackets. A graduated income tax then skims off a rising percentage of the taxpayers’ income. The government likes this. Inflation is good for its revenues. Politicians do not complain when the central bank buys more debt and creates more money.

    The boom in commodities that took place in the late 1970s drove up commodity prices. Then, when Volcker’s FED tightened money in the fall of 1979, the recessions of 1980 and 1981 drove down the price of commodities. So, when the FED’s reinflation began after August 13, 1982, when Mexico nationalized the banks and threatened default, the price of commodities stayed low. There had been overproduction in the boom period. Producers had been fooled by monetary policy to expect further price inflation. They guessed wrong. They guessed wrong especially in mining and oil production. So, the result was low commodity prices for two decades, despite rising prices of final products, such as housing, and rising wages.

    Now we are seeing the recovery of commodity prices. Oil is the obvious example. The price of gold has risen almost in lock step with oil. Sellers of raw materials are facing what every seller wants: more people at the auction. China and India are coming into the world of mass production. Mass production of consumer goods requires the mass consumption of raw materials.

    Asia is not burdened with the political liabilities of Social Security and Medicare. This means Asia has extra capital to invest. It can increase workers’ productivity, now that capitalism has begun to replace socialism. Socialism kills the productivity of capital. Even without high savings rates, Asia would become more productive, merely by turning decisions over the allocation of capital to private owners. But Asia is also thrifty. This double benefit gives Asians a tremendous advantage. Low labor costs are a product of low productivity. The masses of Asia are about to increase their productivity. They will do so by becoming ever more competitive with Western producers.

    What I am saying is this: the conditions that led to the abandonment of the old slogans are about to be reversed. The old slogans are forgotten today, but the conditions that provided the sloganeers with such a victory that they abandoned the slogans are now fading.

    “We owe it to ourselves” is not going to sell in a world in which retirees are absorbing an ever-larger percentage of the productivity of workers. “You owe it to us” has replaced “We owe it to ourselves.” The victims – younger workers – have not yet come up with a slogan to match “You owe it to us,” but they will. When the bite gets larger, they will. Count on it. “We owe it to the children” is on the slogan short list. “The right to die” is in reserve. If it gets big, “the need to die” will move up a notch. “The obligation to die” is always in reserve. “There comes a time to pull the plug” will have its day in the court of public opinion.

    But what about “You can’t eat gold”? Will it ever return? I doubt it. Old slogans, once discarded, are like Presidential candidates who lost. They remain discarded. The case against the gold standard is so widely believed today that I don’t expect to see a gold standard installed anywhere in my lifetime. But the case against the dollar is likely to become widely accepted in capital markets. What will replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is problematic. My guess is that no single currency will. The efficiency of the currency markets is so great that investors can go from one currency to another at a moment’s notice.

    I think gold will remain linked inversely to the dollar. As the dollar falls internationally, gold will rise. If gold starts rising in relation to other currencies, too, that will mark a break with the fiat money world of central banks.

    I think gold is ultimately tied to oil. You can’t drink oil, and you can’t eat gold. But if you own either oil or gold, you surely will have caterers lining up to cover your banquet table.

    A BULL MARKET IN GOLD

    Economist Mark Thornton recently published an article that argues the case for gold from technical analysis. His charts are impressive. I recommend that you take a look at them.

    The first chart shows the ups and downs of gold, 1975 to the present. It does not chart gold at $35/oz in 1971. Gold at $400 is not much above what it was in 1996. The question is: Has there been a permanent turnaround? Thornton thinks there has been. So do I. He writes:

    Trend lines are figments for illustration purposes. What they show in this case is that the price of gold has trended downward for the last 23 years. The trend lines start from the very top of the bubble and the next two “tops” in the early 1980s. Starting from the top of the bubble, the trend line intersects the gold price (in red) in early 2001 at around $265/oz. Gold lost 70% of its value over this 20-year period, more if you account for the depreciation in the dollar. The second trend line starting at the next top intersects the gold price in early 2002 at around $300/oz. and the third trend line, starting from the second peak and touching all subsequent peaks, intersects the gold price in early 2003 at around $350/oz.

    Had someone taken his gold, sold it, and bought a mixture of stocks and bonds, he would have earned in the range of 15% per annum. At 15% per annum, not counting taxes (such as in a tax-deferred retirement fund), 15% for 20 years would earn 16 to one. So, we should compare a $1,000 investment in gold vs. $1,000 in a stock/bond mixture. That’s $300 vs. $16,000. It was bad news for investors in gold.

    Is this likely to repeat? I think this highly unlikely. The swing will go the other way, though I have no idea what the percentage swing will be.

    Thornton’s second chart is revealing. It shows a major reversal in the trend.

    It displays one major cyclical bear market from early 1996 to early 2000 and a major cyclical bull market from early 2001 to the present. The graph presents a pattern of prices that looks like a “W” or what in technical analysis is referred to as a “double bottom.” This is a highly favorable pattern, and gold prices have increased by over $150 since their low point in early 2001. Technical analysis would suggest a high probability that gold prices will go higher, but do not expect to get rich in a matter of days.

    He does not rely on technical analysis alone. He also considers fundamentals. Here, too, he sees a bull market.

    Technical analysis paints a picture of the past and provides a few clues to the future direction of markets. However, fundamental economic analysis is a far more important tool both for constructing technical analysis and for anticipating future changes in markets. My best guess based on fundamental economic analysis is that we have indeed begun a secular bull market in gold. Both the dollar and gold could stabilize for some time before continuing their present long-term courses. In the case of the dollar it is in a downward trend, and in the case of gold there is an upward trend. These trends are fundamentally based on the inflationary policy of the Federal Reserve, the deficit spending of the federal government, and the continued weakening of the US economy.

    Is the U.S. economy weak? Compared to Asia, yes. Compared to Europe, no. Is the FED in inflation mode? No more than usual. Is the deficit in crisis? Yes. This is where the old argument for the gold standard as a restraining factor comes into play once again. It is the astronomical increase in the deficit that offers gold bulls a major hope. This deficit must be funded. Asian central banks are now funding it. They will not do so indefinitely. When they decide to stop the policy of offering below-market loans for the U.S. government, paid for by inflating their own currencies, the dollar will fall, interest rates in the U.S. will rise, and the economic boom will end.

    Woe unto the political party whose man is in the White House when this happens.

    CONCLUSION

    The fall of the dollar seems as sure as any forecast that rational people could make. This will bring with it a rise in commodity prices. Gold and oil are now linked, I believe. Gold is no longer a restraining factor in government policy, but oil is. Gold will follow oil, and oil looks to be in a bull market because energy is in a bull market. Asia and India are plugging in.

    The closest thing to the Bretton Woods agreement today is the decision of Arab policy-makers to sell oil for dollars. I do not expect this policy to survive beyond this decade. When Arabs select another currency, the dollar’s monopoly will go the way of all monopolies. The party will be over for Americans, who have been able to buy the world’s crucial commodity with fiat money. Fiat money always goes the way of all flesh.

    Don’t plan to eat Federal Reserve Notes. But they could make a good fire-starter.

    March 31, 2004

    Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit www.freebooks.com. For a free subscription to Gary North’s newsletter on gold, click here.

  26. Ivo Cerckel schreef op : 29

    ALARM –
    er komt Vrijgoud in de Golf

    zie laatste zin
    GMA may manage the gold reserves of GMU

    Tough competition for central bank headquarters
    14/09/2008 12:06:11 PM GMT
    www.islamonline.com
    UITREKSEL
    GMA STRUCTURE AND POWERS
    The Gulf Monetary Authority will have little or no formal power in the conduct of monetary policy. Rather, it would: – Run in parallel with national central banks, which would retain control over national monetary policy setting, currency issuance, and financial market regulation. – Involve a decision-making council, probably comprising governors of the national central banks. Key decisions are likely to be made by a unanimous vote and probably each country’s vote would carry equal weight. – Aim to strengthen co-operation between national central banks and national monetary policies, including policy recommendations and promoting both macroeconomic convergence and exchange rate stability. It could also play an important and sensitive role in assessing the degree of economic and financial convergence amongst the GCC GCC states. – Make preparations for the introduction of a single currency. – Possibly manage a proportion of the $150bn (Dh551bn) gold and foreign exchange reserves of the states.