Wat is er in ’s hemelsnaam aan de hand met de olieprijzen ? Die slaan opnieuw alle records. De reden: De meeste makkelijk te vinden en te exploreren oliebronnen zijn feitelijk gevonden. Dat zegt Tobin Smith, Editor ChangeWave Investing. Maar dat is niet alles…
“What in the world is going on with oil, you ask? It’s once again setting record highs.
Well, I have spent much of my time consulting with the world’s REAL experts in energy consumption and exploration. And during those hundreds of hours getting to the bottom of the energy world, this is what I’ve figured out: Most of the easy-to-find and easy-to-recover oil wells have basically been found.
This sounds like a flip analysis, but if you talk with the exploration industry leaders, you’d get the same feedback. Looking at all the drillable areas of the world that are NOT located in Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc. (i.e., energy fields that are NOT available to sophisticated energy exploration by private, Western exploration companies), you come to the conclusion that there are FEWER drillable areas for major finds of oil than cash available to drill.
Last year there were only a handful of million-barrel-a-day oil discoveries. Twenty years ago there were hundreds found each year-10 years ago there were dozens.
Reserves in major oil-exporting countries have FALLEN (with the exception of Canada and its oil sands) since 1990.
Mexico peaked in 1998. The North Sea peaked in 1989. Saudi Arabia is locked into 9 million to 10 million barrels a day MAXIMUM because any more depletion would collapse the underground wells with water and render them unproductive.
Nigeria , Iran, Venezuela, Russia-you name it, reserves are falling. Iraq can get to 5 million barrels a day IF $25 billion is invested and sabotage is curtailed-don’t hold your breath.
Bottom line: We are consuming 84 million barrels a day-going to 88 million by the end of the decade-and we are DROPPING reserves 2%-3% a year, INCLUDING the addition of Canadian oil sands.
THANKS A LOT, OPEC
OPEC has lost control of the world’s oil prices because it has lost the capability to flood the market with excess SWEET crude (i.e., low-sulfur oil). When the oil ministers told us last week that they will add another 500,000 barrels of oil to OPEC’s tally, they failed to tell you that:
1) Oil can only come from Saudi Arabia, as no one else can raise production.
2) The oil that CAN be added to production is the heavy-sulfur oil that only 10 refineries in the U.S. can turn into gasoline!
Adding 500,000 additional barrels of heavy oil to the world’s daily supply is like adding 5 million barrels of salt water to the water supply of a drought-affected area-not much bloody help.
Listen, gasoline refineries are running at full capacity with utilization rates rising to 96.7% from 94.9% the week prior. These max capacity rates will prevail ALL summer because of end-market demand, and so, too, will the weekly draws.
Inventories now stand at 329 million barrels-8% above the five-year historical level, which appears strong with oil rising. However, inventories only account for roughly 24 days of demand.
The industry and the buyers are focused on the HIGHLY predictable seasonal pick-up in demand in Q4, when global consumption is expected to increase from 84 million barrels per day to 86 million.
Throw in a hotter-than-average summer in the East Coast and Midwest, a few major hurricanes that shut down 30 million to 40 million barrels of offshore production, and NOW you understand what I’m talkin’ about.
What this means for investors is that the energy consumption imbalance is as STRONG as ever, and if you sold your energy stocks in the April/May correction, you were listening to the wrong advice. Now is the time to make sure your energy investments-from what I call your Virtual Exxon stocks to Energy Conservation Wave stocks-are in order.”
Tobin Smith laat zien, dat oliebronnen moeilijker toegankelijk worden. Maar tegelijk overstijgt de mondiale vraag naar olieprodukten de totale wereldwijde raffinage capaciteit en OPEC is zijn controle over de olieprijzen definitief kwijt.
M.a.w. De Europeanen kampen met recessie en massale werkloosheid en blijven voortdurend kissebissen over Europese subsidies en begrotingen, terwijl de wereldeconomie draait als een tierelier.
EU ? Zorg, dat je eruit stapt ! En wel zo gauw mogelijk.