Live long and prosper!

Sachs Realty – ‘Vrijwel alle economen werken letterlijk voor de overheid’. Rente, huizenmarkt, Oostenrijkse school versus de Pruisische staat, enz. :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-6voGzO218

https://www.doorbraak.eu/gebladerte/00765p46.htm

Al oud, maar humor:

“We praten er nog behoorlijk lang over door tot Arie (bezitslibertarier) tot de conclusie komt dat “sommige apen inderdaad bewustzijn hebben en kunnen leren eigendom te respecteren. Zij zouden in theorie in aanmerking komen voor rechten.”

Haha, een aap kan het leren…

“Als een kat mijn huis binnenloopt respecteert hij mijn eigendom niet, en dan heb ik het recht over hem te beschikken. ”

……

Muhaha, Arie de libertarier toch.., die kat ziet je huis als territorium, of om toe te voegen aan zijn territorium. Maar om nou ook te gaan vechten met een kat..

Het trekt allemaal op niets met bezitslibertarisme, en is van tijd tot tijd apenkomisch, omdat bezit betrekking heeft op zowat de laagst mogelijke capaciteiten, eigenlijk van dierlijke aard..

“If you are so smart, why aren’t you rich?“

The American Dream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evsKT9OI-Og

Amerika is het land van grote kansen, veel hoop en hoge optimisme.
Vele aantrekkelijke (10) klimaten, de openheid en gastvrijheid van de bevolking, en vele mogelijkheden om miljonair te worden, dit zijn een aantal redenen waarom iemand wellicht naar de Verenigde Staten zou willen emigreren.

De kans om miljonair worden staat nu op ongeveer 1 in 15 (22+ miljoen mensen).

Als we het aantal multimiljonairs vergelijken met de totale bevolking, is de kans extreem klein. In de VS bijvoorbeeld bezit de rijkste 2% van de bevolking een vermogen van ongeveer $ 2,4 miljoen, aldus Yahoo Finance. Dit suggereert dat slechts een klein percentage van de bevolking de status van multimiljonair heeft bereikt.

Deze 2% is extreem klein, maar voor sommige is het makkelijk te behalen..

Ik ben benieuwd naar de hAIseenberg portfolio. Die van mij zit vooral vol met grondstoffen en emerging markets, waarbij crypto gezien moet worden als een digitale grondstof.

(Things that matter, the rest not so much..)

Hi ….,
Financial markets rallied in May 2025 as investors looked past the uncertainty and worries that impacted markets earlier this year. In May, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.94%. The broad-based large cap S&P 500 jumped 6.15%. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index rose a remarkable 9.56%. All three benchmarks regained nearly all their losses from earlier in the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 0.64% year-to-date in 2025. The S&P 500 Index turned positive again by 0.51%, while the NASDAQ was down only 1.02%. International equity markets, as measured by the Morgan Stanley All Country World Index excluding the U.S., remarkably gained 4.39% in May and were higher by an impressive 12.23% year-to-date.1

U.S. Treasury yields for all maturities longer than six months finished higher in May. The one-year yield finished at 4.11% at the end of May (versus 3.85% at the end of April). At the longer end of the maturity spectrum, the 10-year yield ended the month at 4.41%, well above the 4.17% level at the start of the month. The main impetus for this increase was a budget bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives which is forecast to add to the Federal deficit. The message from the bond market is that U.S. government will have to pay more to finance the additional spending. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index, a broad measure of U.S. bond market performance, fell 0.72%. Despite the decline in May, the bond market provided a ballast to equities for investors this year as bonds have gained 2.45%, outpacing the major U.S. equity indexes.

There were several news items in May that impacted market sentiment:

The Trump administration softened its rhetoric on tariffs during the month, striking a more constructive tone toward China. The world’s two largest economies opened a 90-day negotiation window, during which the U.S. lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% (from 145% previously). By month’s end, the fragility of this tentative détente was on full display, with both sides accusing each other of violating the terms of the truce. The July 9th deadline to strike trade deals with other countries still looms.
The Court of International Trade ruled that the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) were illegal. The Trump administration quickly appealed the ruling and won at the higher court.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget bill in May (by one vote) that has the potential to raise the Federal deficit. The bill still needs to be passed by the Senate, but bond markets reacted negatively to this news as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% during its May meeting and emphasized a wait-and-see approach. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a measured tone after the meeting, acknowledging rising risks to both inflation and unemployment, but signaling no urgency to act.
Given the most recent GDP announcement (see below), a big question for markets is whether the U.S. is headed for a recession or not. This is not an easy question to answer at this point.

Putting the GDP announcement aside, several of the economic indicators have been skewed by consumers and businesses acting in anticipation of the various tariff announcements. However, the U.S. has not seen a spike in tariffs this high since the 1940s and many questions around the tariff policy remain unanswered. What happens after the 90-day pause? Will some tariffs become permanent? What will be the impact of current tariffs? It is important to remember that there is a lag effect between the time when policy is implemented and its measurable impact in economic data.

Economic Growth

The broadest measure of U.S. economic growth is the gross domestic product (“GDP”). An updated GDP estimate for Q1 2025 showed the U.S. economy contracting by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from the 2.5% growth rate in the prior quarter. However, it is hard to draw conclusions from this report as the underlying factors were distorted by businesses and consumers trying to get ahead of any prospective tariffs.

According to Goldman Sachs analysis, net exports represented the largest-ever drag on economic growth as companies tried to import as many goods as possible prior to any tariffs taking effect.3
Consumers continued to spend in Q1 but at a slower pace. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity and it grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter (versus 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024).
In 2024, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace, compared to 2.9% in 2023.4
The unemployment rate was 4.2% in April 2025 (same as in March). It has been rangebound between 4.0% and 4.2% since June 2024 and remains low by historical standards. It reached a low of 3.4% in January 2023.
Employers added 177,000 jobs in April, surpassing economists’ expectations. The job market appears to be on stable footing for the time being despite recent government layoffs and economic uncertainty.
Inflation

The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) rose 0.2% in April. On a year-over-year basis the CPI was 2.3% higher, down from 2.4% in March, and below economists’ expectations. This was the lowest 12-month change since February 2021. Prices for airfares and used cars were both lower in April. Energy prices declined. While this inflation report is encouraging on the surface, it does not reflect the impact of the tariff policies nor retaliation from other countries.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in April and was up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis.
The CPI reached its most recent peak during the 12-month period ending in June 2022, when it showed an annual increase of 9.1%. Although inflation has fallen by two-thirds from its June 2022 peak, the main inflation metrics are moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The current forecast is for the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate one to two times in 2025 but given the prospect of higher tariffs and slower economic growth, that forecast may change.
Another measure of inflation that is a preferred metric by the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) Price Index, rose 2.1% in April over the prior year, the lowest annual increase in seven months.
Housing Market

The housing market remains the weakest part of the U.S. economy. Builder confidence for newly built homes, as measured by the NAHB Housing Market Index, fell six points to 34 in April, matching its lowest level in November 2023. The index has a scale of 0 to 100, with readings below 50 indicating lower near-term optimism for housing among builders. The last time the index was above the 50-point threshold was April 2024.

In April, sales of existing homes fell 0.5% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.0 million units. This was the second consecutive monthly decline, and this trend does not bode well for the spring selling season.3
In 2024, sales fell for the second consecutive year to the second lowest level since 1995.4
The current existing home sales activity represents a tight supply of homes on the market, at about 3.5 months. A balanced market has about four to six months of supply.5
The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.9% in May, about the same level where it was at the beginning of the year. The rate briefly declined to 6.70% in March. High mortgage rates have been a significant factor contributing to the elevated unaffordability and low demand from home buyers.
Homeowners with a low mortgage rate on their existing home are hesitant to give up that rate and sell their home unless they must. At the same time, current mortgage rates and high prices are a challenge for first-time home buyers
Leading Economic Index (“LEI”)

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index attempts to provide an early indication for the direction of the economy in the near-term. The LEI fell 1.0% in April after a decline (-0.7%) in March 2025. The index has declined for five consecutive months, and this was the largest monthly decline in two years. During the six-month period ending in April, the LEI declined by 2.0%, representing the same rate of decline as the prior six months. The LEI was negatively impacted by a drop in consumer confidence, falling stock prices and a decline in manufacturing. The Coincident Economic Indicator, which measures current economic activity, continues to be at levels typically associated with moderate economic growth. The Conference Board noted that substantial policy uncertainty is moderating economic growth projections in 2025. The organization is forecasting the U.S. economy to grow by 1.6% in 2025. 6

Growth prospects for the U.S. economy have weakened due to tariff risks and a global trade war. The ……. model portfolios remain fully invested but further shocks to growth, inflation or financial conditions could warrant a defensive stance. A dollar-cost-average approach for investing new money eliminates the emotional reaction to market events, but clients should also consider their personal goals and objectives. From a behavioral perspective it is easy to fall prey to recency bias and react to volatile markets. For investors with a long-term horizon, making adjustments during volatile times typically proves to be the wrong decision. If you have any questions or concerns about the recent financial market volatility, it may be prudent to review your risk profile, investment horizon and financial goals.

Let’s talk again, when it’s closer to the weekend.

Sincerely, …..

Maar ik begrijp dat we een select en hoogst elitair gezelschap excentrieke succesnummers gaan vormen. Prima, ik juich het toe. Een beetje als de Grim Hustle misschien wel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBaxLUOewE4

Goed plan dat “Live long and prosper”. Misschien “and be happy” er aan toevoegen? Misschien moet er ook een rubriek ‘Stamcafe’ komen. Daar kunnen rare Belgen, Trump-fanbois en andere stamgasten hun “unhappy” dronkemanspraat neerplempen.

Leuk die nieuwe rubriek! Lachen is gezond en als we welvarender worden dan de rest ( uitgezonderd die makkelijk graaiende politici) geven we een voorbeeld dat de nivelleerders misschien aan het denken zet.
En laten we wel zijn, je kunt toch beter lachen over de blunderende de Jonge, of de gedragsveranderingen van Rutte, dan je er aan te ergeren?

Een beetje van alles…

Weer een hoop, emotionele verwarde (arme) mensen als het om geld en investeringen gaat.
De dames praten veel, meestal onzin, net als mijn persoonlijk troll, die zonder enig resultaat zijn leven nooit kan verbeteren. En dan krijg je weer die reacties: “Geld maakt niet gelukkig”. Dit is bedoelt voor die eeuwige arme rooie mensen, die niets hebben en nooit iets zullen krijgen. O ja, 100.000 euro is echt geen geld…
En je afbetaald krot kan je niet meetellen als weelde, want dat zijn afbetaalde lasten.

Neem bv de S&P 500-index, een veelgebruikte maatstaf voor de prestaties van de Amerikaanse aandelenmarkt, is voor het eerst sinds februari 2025 voor een paar dagen boven de 6.000+ punten gesloten. Deze snelle beweging duidt op een aanzienlijk groot herstel van de aandelenkoersen, na een periode van volatiliteit en een terugval ten opzichte van de recordhoogte in februari. De index bevindt zich nu net onder de recordhoogte en is aangewakkerd door positieve bedrijfsresultaten en economische cijfers.

De S&P 500 staat nu weer boven 6,020.74, +20.26 (0.34%). dat betekend elke punt dat de S&P 500 omhoog gaat, verdien ik ongeveer $1000. Het is niet veel, vergeleken met sommige vrienden van onze maandelijkse club “Meeting of Minds”. Maar in mijn kleine wereld om $20.000 p/dag te verdienen, (belastingvrij) is toch niet slecht.

Verders alles goed…